Da misalin karfe 10:00 na safe agogon Beijing, shugaban kasar Rasha Vladimir Putin ya ce ya yanke shawarar gudanar da wani farmaki na musamman na soji a yankin Donbas da ke gabashin Ukraine.Nan da nan an ji karar fashewar wasu abubuwa a yankin filin tashi da saukar jiragen sama na Boryspil da ke Kiev, babban birnin kasar Ukraine, a Kyiv, Odessa, Kharkov, Kramatorsk da Berdyansk, lamarin da ke nuna kasashen Rasha da Turai a yankin Turai.Rikicin da ke tsakanin kasashen biyu ya ta'azzara ta kowace fuska.Gaba dayan kasar Ukraine na cikin wani yanayi na yaki.
Ya zuwa lokacin hada wannan rahoto, farashin ma'aunin iskar gas na Turai TTF ya tashi zuwa Yuro 114 a kowace MWh.Wane irin canje-canje mai zurfi zai haifar da lamarin Rasha-Ukraine zai kawo kasuwancin makamashi mai tsabta a gida da waje, kuma ta yaya zai shafi saurin maye gurbin makamashi na gargajiya a cikin masana'antu na photovoltaic da iska?A halin yanzu, ana sa ran cewa farashin albarkatun kasa na wasu kayan aikin hoto zai tashi, kuma buƙatun iska da hasken rana a Turai da sauran wurare za su ƙara haɓaka.
Farashin gas na musamman na iya tashi, ƙarfin jigilar kaya yana da ƙarfi kuma farashin ya kasance mai girma
A gaskiya ma, Ukraine ita ce tushen iskar gas na musamman don kera semiconductor na duniya, don haka a bayan wannan rikici zai shafi karancin wasu iskar gas na musamman da ake amfani da su a cikin na'urorin lantarki.Samfuran Semiconductor kuma sune mahimman kayan albarkatun ƙasa don samfuran masana'anta na hoto-voltaic kamar inverters.Shin za a sami jerin martani a nan gaba?
Ukraine tana da kaso mai yawa na kasuwannin iskar Neon, xenon, da krypton, kuma rikicin zai sa wasu wuraren samar da iskar gas na musamman ba su iya aiki ko lalace.
Yawancin masana'antun na'urori na semiconductor sun ce saboda yawan iskar gas na musamman ana samun su daga ƙasashe da yawa, ciki har da Ukraine, babu ƙarancin kayayyaki a cikin ɗan gajeren lokaci.Shugabar kamfanin na Micron Melotta ta fada a wata hira ta musamman da ta yi da Bloomberg News cewa, wani bangare na iskar gas mai daraja ya fito ne daga kasar Ukraine, amma an shirya manyan kayayyaki, kuma mafi mahimmanci, kamfanin yana da hanyoyin samar da kayayyaki da yawa, ciki har da Amurka, Tarayyar Turai da kuma Amurka. Asiya.Ya yi imanin cewa kamfanin na ci gaba da sanya ido a hankali da kuma fatan za a samu sauki.Har ila yau SK Hynix ya bayyana cewa ya samar da adadi mai yawa na iskar gas, don haka babu bukatar damuwa da yawa.Amma yayin da buƙatu na iya yin daidai da wadata, ba makawa wasu iskar gas za su ga hauhawar farashin.Farashin Neon, wani samfurin, ya yi tashin gwauron zabi bayan rikici tsakanin Rasha da Ukraine a cikin 2014, lokacin da farashin ya kai dala 3,500 a kowace mita cubic, fiye da sau 10 fiye da da.
Yayin da ake ci gaba da ruruwa tsakanin kasashen biyu, farashin gwal ya tashi matuka.Babban danyen kayan da aka fi amfani da su wajen sarrafa hasken rana shine foda na azurfa, wanda ke da alaƙa da farashin azurfar London.Babu labarin wani faffadan hauhawar farashin azurfa tukuna.Saboda haka, a cikin ɗan gajeren lokaci, babu alamar farashin manna azurfa ya tashi.
Wane tasiri abin da ya faru tsakanin Rasha da Ukraine zai yi kan safarar kwantena, musamman ga sabbin kayayyakin makamashi?
A cewar masu lura da Fang, farashin kayan dakon teku zai ci gaba da yin tsada.A cikin shekaru biyu da suka gabata, farashin ya tashi da sau 4, 5 ko ma fiye da haka.Hauhawar farashin mai na baya-bayan nan na iya shafar hauhawar farashin dizal, kayan da ake amfani da su na jigilar kwantena, amma ko da mai jirgin ya kara farashin a kan hakan, ba zai shafi farashin jigilar kayayyaki da ake da su ba.Ƙarfafa ba zai kasance da sikeli mai yawa ba.Duk da haka, farashin jigilar kaya ba zai ragu cikin ɗan gajeren lokaci ba, za a ci gaba da ƙarfafa ƙarfin jigilar kayayyaki gabaɗaya, kuma jigilar jigilar kayayyaki za ta kasance cikin mawuyacin hali.A gefe guda kuma, saboda mutant nau'in Omicron, annobar cutar a yawancin kasashen Turai ta ci gaba da yaduwa, kuma tarin sabbin cututtukan da aka gano ya sa yanayin fitar da kayayyaki zuwa kasashen waje ya yi matukar kyau, kuma kasuwar jigilar kayayyaki ta yi kyau sosai.Dangane da hadarin yaƙe-yaƙe na cikin gida, Turai na iya ƙara yawan tarin kayan, ta yadda za a haɓaka buƙatun ton-nautical mil don haɓaka.Gabaɗaya, ƙarfin kwantena zai kasance mafi ƙarancin wadata, kuma yiwuwar nutsewar farashin ruwan teku ba shi da yawa, kuma yana iya yiwuwa a kiyaye matsayin ko ma ƙara dan kadan.
Ikon iska na hotovoltaic, da sauransu, canjin makamashi mai sabuntawa na duniya yana haɓakawa
Farkon wannan zagaye na yakin cikin gida tsakanin Rasha da Ukraine zai yi tasiri mai kyau wajen hanzarta samar da makamashin da zai maye gurbin makamashin gargajiya.Duk rana a yau, sabbin kayan makamashi sun nuna karuwa.Zhongli Group, Sungrow, Trina Solar, Risen Energy, Foster, JinkoSolar, JA Technology, LONGi, GoodWe, Chint Electric, Zhonghuan, da Jolywood duk sun tashi a kusa.PV 50ETF ya samu 1.53%.
Farashin iskar gas ya yi tashin gwauron zabi kwanan nan.Wannan dai ba labari ne mai dadi ba ga yankin na Turai, inda farashin iskar gas ya tashi kusan sau hudu a shekarar da ta gabata.A halin yanzu, kashi daya bisa uku na iskar gas a Turai yana fitowa ne daga iskar gas, kuma yanayin siyasa ya sake kara girman matsalar samar da kayayyaki.Da misalin karfe 4 na yamma a yau, farashin iskar gas na TTF na kasar Holland ya tashi a karo na hudu a jere, ya karu da kashi 41% a rana daya.Shugaban Amurka Joe Biden ya kuma ce zai kara daukar matakan ladabtarwa kan Rasha.Duk wani takunkumin da zai hana Rasha damar samun kudaden waje zai karfafa kasuwannin mai, iskar gas da kayayyakin masarufi kamar karafa da amfanin gona.
Dogaro da iskar gas na gida a Turai yana da yawa sosai, ya kai kashi 90%.Don haka, a wannan lokaci da farashin iskar gas ya yi tashin gwauron zabo, masu amfani da masana'antu, wutar lantarki da dumama, wadanda suka saba amfani da iskar gas za su nemi hanyoyin da za su iya magance bukatunsu.Za a hanzarta maye gurbin sabbin hanyoyin makamashi kamar hasken rana.
Wood Mackenzie ya yi nuni da cewa, tare da karuwar samar da wutar lantarki mai canzawa, Turai tana da zabuka guda hudu don daidaita ayyukan grid: ruwan famfo mai famfo, masana'antar sarrafa iskar gas.Rory McCarthy, babban manazarci na hukumar, ya ce, “Ga tsarin samar da wutar lantarki na zamani, masana’antar iskar gas na iya samun cikakken wutar lantarki a cikin mintuna biyu, kuma za su iya aiki a wani bangare tare da karin inganci kuma suna iya samar da wutar lantarki na tsawon lokaci mara iyaka.Ginin shine samar da iskar gas marar katsewa."
Amma nan da shekara ta 2030, ajiyar makamashin baturi zai mamaye kololuwar iskar gas a matsayin zaɓi mafi arha don daidaita grid na Turai.Ana sa ran ƙarfin ajiyar makamashi a duk sassan Turai zai girma daga 3GW na yanzu (ban da famfo mai ruwa) zuwa 26GW nan da 2030 da 89GW nan da 2040. McCarthy ya lura cewa nan da 2040, Turai na iya samun 320GWh na ƙarfin ajiyar makamashi da ake samu don daidaita tsarin wutar lantarki. .Yawancin su za su fito ne daga tsarin ajiyar makamashin baturi mai amfani.McCarthy ya ce "Kudin samar da wutar lantarki na mai da kwal kuma za su tashi, kuma manufofin fitar da sifili za su yi niyya kan lalata duk ayyukan kasuwar wutar lantarki," in ji McCarthy.
Kamfanin manazarta Bloomberg New Energy Finance ya taba fitar da rahoton binciken, wanda ya yi nuni da cewa: A Amurka, yayin da wuraren samar da hasken rana ke ci gaba da yaduwa tare da cinye lokacin aiki na na'urorin samar da iskar gas, ana buƙatar tasoshin wutar lantarkin da za su sake farawa kuma rufe akai-akai.Wannan yana ƙara farashin aikin su saboda buƙatun mai da lalacewa da tsagewa.
A halin yanzu, lokacin da farashin iskar gas ya yi yawa, masu zuba jari za su yi taka-tsan-tsan wajen yanke shawarar maye gurbin sabuwar hanyar samar da wutar lantarki don gujewa matsalar wannan danyen mai tsada.
Tabbas masu fitar da iskar gas ba sa son ganin an ci gaba da wannan lamarin.Haka kuma za su nemo hanyoyin da za su sa farashin iskar gas ya yi tsada fiye da abin dariya, in ba haka ba fitar da iskar gas zai zama matsala da zarar an samu halin watsi da masana'antu da wutar lantarki.
Idan aka kwatanta da matakin farko na rikicin Rasha da Ukraine a cikin 2014 (19 ga Janairu, 2014 zuwa Maris 20, 2014), a cikin aiwatar da manyan azuzuwan kadari, farashin kayayyaki ya tashi sosai, har zuwa 7.6%.Farashin danyen mai ya tashi da kashi 4.2%, sannan farashin zinari ya tashi da kashi 6.1% (daga Haitong Securities.) Ci gaba da tsadar danyen mai kuma zai sa amfani da motocin lantarki, motoci masu tsafta da sauransu.
Dangane da ci gaban sabon makamashi na gaba, musamman ma masana'antar photovoltaic, wannan shekara za ta ci gaba da haɓakawa.A ranar 23 ga Fabrairu, ƙungiyoyin da suka dace sun yi annabta cewa sabon shigar da ƙarfin hoto a cikin 2022 na iya ƙaruwa zuwa fiye da 75GW, wanda shine kusan 75-90GW.An kwatanta wannan darajar tare da bayanan Hukumar Kula da Makamashi ta Kasa - sabon shigar da ikon daukar hoto na kasar a cikin 2021 zai kasance kusan 55GW, karuwar shekara-shekara na 36% -64%.A lokaci guda kuma, an kiyasta cewa daga 2022 zuwa 2025, sabuwar shekara ta 2022 na 2025 na kasata zai kai 83-99GW.Dangane da bayanai daga Ma'aikatar Masana'antu da Fasahar Watsa Labarai, a cikin 2021, samar da hoto na kasata na polysilicon, wafers, sel, da kayayyaki zai kai ton 505,000, 227GW, 198GW, da 182GW, bi da bi, sama da 27.5%, 40.6% 46.9%, da 46.1% kowace shekara.Fitar da kayan aikin hoto na shekara-shekara ya wuce dalar Amurka biliyan 28.4.
Dangane da sabon rahoton bincike na CITIC Construction Zuba Jari, ƙarfin da aka sanya na cikin gida a cikin Janairu 2022 ya zarce yadda ake tsammani, kuma sabon ƙarfin shigar da wutar lantarki a cikin ƙasar ya wuce 7GW, haɓakar shekara-shekara na 200%.Daga cikin su, sabon shigar da ƙarfin da aka rarraba na photovoltaics shine 4.5GW, karuwar shekara-shekara na 250%;sabon shigar da ƙarfin da aka sanya na photovoltaics na tsakiya shine 2.5GW, karuwar shekara-shekara na 150%.Kayan siliki na sama, wafern siliki, batura na ƙasa, kayayyaki, da inverters da kayan taimako, duk hanyoyin haɗin yanar gizo a cikin sarkar masana'antu gabaɗaya cike suke da umarni, kuma ƙimar aiki baya faɗuwa amma yana tashi.Bakin lokacin gargajiya na wannan shekara na iya zama “ba mai rauni ba”.
Rubutun wannan, muna fatan mutanen Ukraine za su iya kare kansu da iyalansu, su ciyar da wannan lokaci na musamman lafiya, kuma su dawo ko samun gida mai zaman lafiya da wuri-wuri.
Lokacin aikawa: Maris 12-2022